Federal Reserve — Rate Held at 3.50–3.75% · Next Meeting April 28–29, 2026
PMMS 30Y at 6.37% as of May 07, 2026 — 44bps below a year ago (6.81%). 10-Year Treasury forecast: ~4.3%. Fannie Mae ESR report: Latest. OBMMI data as of May 11, 2026.
1-Minute Briefing
AI · May 12, 2026 03:38 PM UTC
The SignalRates are down 44bps year-over-year and inventory is tight, but homes are sitting 9 days longer and 16.5% are dropping price—this is a buyer's market disguised as balanced supply, where motivated sellers are negotiating hard.
What It Means for LOsCall buyers who've been waiting since last summer—rates are meaningfully lower, homes stay on market longer (giving them negotiating room), and sellers are taking price cuts, so the timing advantage has flipped in their favor.
Watch ForAny Fed commentary or inflation data this week that could push rates above 6.50%—if that happens, the window for rate-sensitive buyers closes fast and urgency shifts back to sellers.
Real Estate Market Trends
Housing Market Pulse · Redfin & Zillow Data
Existing Home Sales · NAR via FRED
Existing Home Sales
FRED · NARExisting Home Sales data unavailable.
NAR Existing Home Sales via FRED · Series EXHOSLUSM495S · Millions SAAR · Released monthly
Fannie Mae ESR · Housing & Economic Outlook · Latest
Housing Market Outlook
Fannie Mae ESRTotal Home Sales
~5.5M
ESR Forecast 2026
SF Starts YoY
−6.2%
Single-family 2026
GDP Growth
~2.3%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
Unemployment
~4.2%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
CPI Inflation
~2.7%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
10-Yr Treasury
~4.3%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
Fannie Mae ESR APIs · Latest
Market Risk Factors · Fannie Mae ESR · Latest
Market Risk Factors
Fannie Mae ESR↑ Risk: Slower GDP growth forecast — weaker economy supports lower rates but signals demand risk
↑ Risk: Limited inventory despite lower rates — prices stay elevated, affordability constrained
↑ Risk: Geopolitical events pushing oil & Treasury yields higher near-term
↑ Risk: Single-family starts forecast −6.2% YoY — supply constraints persist
↓ Positive: Rates ~45bps below year-ago — spring 2026 buyers better positioned than 2025
Fannie Mae ESR Group · Latest Economic Forecast
Mortgage & Market Insights
Key Indicators · May 12, 2026
PMMS 30Y FRM
6.37%
Freddie Mac · May 07, 2026
▲ from 6.30% prev week
PMMS 15Y FRM
5.72%
Freddie Mac · May 07, 2026
▲ from 5.64% prev week
YoY Change
44bps
30Y was 6.81% a year ago
▼ More affordable YoY
30Y/10Y Spread
199bps
30Y 6.37% · 10Y 4.38% · FRED
Tight · Historical norm ~170bps
OBMMI Daily Rate Locks · Optimal Blue via FRED API · May 11, 2026
Full OBMMI Rate Comparison · May 11, 2026
Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI)
FRED API · OBMMI| Loan Type | Current Rate | Prior Period | Change (bps) | Trend |
|---|
Optimal Blue OBMMI via FRED API · Actual locked rates from ~35% of US mortgage transactions · Updated nightly
Freddie Mac PMMS · Via FRED API
Primary Mortgage Market Survey — Weekly Rates
Freddie Mac · FRED30Y FRM · May 07, 2026
6.37%
Weekly avg · 20% down · excellent credit
15Y FRM · May 07, 2026
5.72%
Weekly survey avg
30Y Prev Week
6.30%
Prior PMMS reading
30Y One Year Ago
6.81%
Same week prior year
WoW Change 30Y
▲7bps
Basis points week-over-week
Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED API · Series MORTGAGE30US / MORTGAGE15US · Released Thursdays 12pm ET
Fannie Mae ESR Forecast · Latest · Live via API
30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast
Fannie Mae API| Period | Forecast | Source | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 6.60% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Q2 2026 | 6.50% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Q3 2026 | 6.40% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Q4 2026 | 6.30% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Full Year 2027 | 6.10% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
Fannie Mae Housing Indicators API · Est. values from Mar 2026 ESR when API unavailable · Auto-updated monthly
30-Year Mortgage vs 10-Year Treasury Spread · Via FRED
30Y Mortgage / 10Y Treasury Spread
FRED APICurrent Spread
199bps
30Y minus 10Y Treasury
30Y Mortgage
6.37%
PMMS weekly avg
10Y Treasury
4.38%
FRED DGS10 · Daily
Signal
Tight
Pre-2022 norm ~170bps · 2023 peak ~310bps
FRED API · MORTGAGE30US (weekly) minus DGS10 (daily) · Spread tracks lender risk premium · Updated daily
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