Federal Reserve — Rate Held at 3.50–3.75% · Next Meeting April 28–29, 2026
PMMS 30Y at 6.49% as of Jul 09, 2026 — 26bps below a year ago (6.75%). 10-Year Treasury forecast: ~4.3%. Fannie Mae ESR report: Latest. OBMMI data as of Jul 09, 2026.
1-Minute Briefing
AI · Jul 11, 2026 02:20 PM UTC
The SignalRates are down 26bps year-over-year while inventory remains tight and homes are sitting 9 days longer—this is a buyer's market masquerading as balanced, with 16.5% of homes already price-reduced and buyers capturing 1.8% discounts.
What It Means for LOsCall your fence-sitters today and lead with "rates are at 6.49%, down nearly 30bps from last summer, and sellers are dropping prices—your buying power is measurably better than it was 12 months ago, and urgency is shifting to sellers, not you."
Watch ForThe Fed's next commentary this week and any economic data that could push rates below 6.40%—if we break that level, you'll have a real refi/purchase story for clients on the sidelines.
Real Estate Market Trends
Housing Market Pulse · Redfin & Zillow Data
Existing Home Sales · NAR via FRED
Existing Home Sales
FRED · NARSAAR · Jun 2026
4090.00M
Million units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
↓ 2.4% MoM
↑ 2.8% YoY
4020.00M
Jan
4130.00M
Feb
4010.00M
Mar
4040.00M
Apr
4190.00M
May
4090.00M
Jun
NAR Existing Home Sales via FRED · Series EXHOSLUSM495S · Millions SAAR · Released monthly
Fannie Mae ESR · Housing & Economic Outlook · Latest
Housing Market Outlook
Fannie Mae ESRTotal Home Sales
~5.5M
ESR Forecast 2026
SF Starts YoY
−6.2%
Single-family 2026
GDP Growth
~2.3%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
Unemployment
~4.2%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
CPI Inflation
~2.7%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
10-Yr Treasury
~4.3%
Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026
Fannie Mae ESR APIs · Latest
Market Risk Factors · Fannie Mae ESR · Latest
Market Risk Factors
Fannie Mae ESR↑ Risk: Slower GDP growth forecast — weaker economy supports lower rates but signals demand risk
↑ Risk: Limited inventory despite lower rates — prices stay elevated, affordability constrained
↑ Risk: Geopolitical events pushing oil & Treasury yields higher near-term
↑ Risk: Single-family starts forecast −6.2% YoY — supply constraints persist
↓ Positive: Rates ~45bps below year-ago — spring 2026 buyers better positioned than 2025
Fannie Mae ESR Group · Latest Economic Forecast
Mortgage & Market Insights
Key Indicators · July 11, 2026
PMMS 30Y FRM
6.49%
Freddie Mac · Jul 09, 2026
▲ from 6.43% prev week
PMMS 15Y FRM
5.82%
Freddie Mac · Jul 09, 2026
▲ from 5.79% prev week
YoY Change
26bps
30Y was 6.75% a year ago
▼ More affordable YoY
30Y/10Y Spread
195bps
30Y 6.49% · 10Y 4.54% · FRED
Tight · Historical norm ~170bps
OBMMI Daily Rate Locks · Optimal Blue via FRED API · Jul 09, 2026
Full OBMMI Rate Comparison · Jul 09, 2026
Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI)
FRED API · OBMMI| Loan Type | Current Rate | Prior Period | Change (bps) | Trend |
|---|
Optimal Blue OBMMI via FRED API · Actual locked rates from ~35% of US mortgage transactions · Updated nightly
Freddie Mac PMMS · Via FRED API
Primary Mortgage Market Survey — Weekly Rates
Freddie Mac · FRED30Y FRM · Jul 09, 2026
6.49%
Weekly avg · 20% down · excellent credit
15Y FRM · Jul 09, 2026
5.82%
Weekly survey avg
30Y Prev Week
6.43%
Prior PMMS reading
30Y One Year Ago
6.75%
Same week prior year
WoW Change 30Y
▲6bps
Basis points week-over-week
Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED API · Series MORTGAGE30US / MORTGAGE15US · Released Thursdays 12pm ET
Fannie Mae ESR Forecast · Latest · Live via API
30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast
Fannie Mae API| Period | Forecast | Source | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 6.60% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Q2 2026 | 6.50% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Q3 2026 | 6.40% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Q4 2026 | 6.30% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
| Full Year 2027 | 6.10% | Est. · Fannie Mae Mar 2026 ESR | Est. |
Fannie Mae Housing Indicators API · Est. values from Mar 2026 ESR when API unavailable · Auto-updated monthly
30-Year Mortgage vs 10-Year Treasury Spread · Via FRED
30Y Mortgage / 10Y Treasury Spread
FRED APICurrent Spread
195bps
30Y minus 10Y Treasury
30Y Mortgage
6.49%
PMMS weekly avg
10Y Treasury
4.54%
FRED DGS10 · Daily
Signal
Tight
Pre-2022 norm ~170bps · 2023 peak ~310bps
FRED API · MORTGAGE30US (weekly) minus DGS10 (daily) · Spread tracks lender risk premium · Updated daily
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